April 13, 2012

Election numbers

Jon Ralston takes a look at some key numbers from the past few weeks and what they could mean for the 2012 election:

Some highlights:
  • State Democrats saw their active voter registration edge slip to 35,000 against the GOP as thousands of voters were flagged as "inactive." Inactive voters can still vote come November, but a good chunk of them likely moved out of state. State Democrats have seen their edge over the state GOP shrink from 8 points in 2008 to 3 points today.
  • Danny Tarkanian raised $344,000 in the first quarter of 2012 in his bid for Nevada's 4th congressional district while the Democratic challenger, state Sen. Steven Horsford, raised $260,000. Horsford still enjoys a sizable cash-on-hand lead and a 9 point Democratic registration advantage, but if Tarkanian or whoever the GOP nominee is can keep putting up these kind of fundraising numbers I wouldn't be surprised if the national GOP decided to make a serious play for it.
  • State Assembly Speaker John Oceguera raised $373,000 this past quarter in his bid to unseat Rep. Joe Heck in CD-3. Heck hasn't released his first quarter numbers yet but has $900,000+ on hand.
As Ralston says, numbers aren't destiny but they do provide some key insights into how the election is shaping up.